After years of hype, the first AI-designed drugs fall short in the clinic

The first AI-designed drugs have ended with disappointment. Over the last year-plus, the first handful of molecules created by artificial intelligence have failed trials or been deprioritized. The AI companies behind these drugs brought them into the clinic full of fanfare about a new age of drug discovery — and have quietly shelved them after learning old lessons about how hard pharmaceutical R&D can be.

Earlier this month, UK-based Exscientia slipped into a pipeline update that a Phase I/II study of its cancer drug candidate EXS-21546 waswinding down. That cut followed a decision last year by its partner Sumitomo Pharma to abandon another of its AI-designed drugs. In April, a test of BenevolentAI’s dermatitis drugfell short as well.

And Recursion Pharmaceuticals — the third of AI’s early generation — hasn’t recorded a trial failure but has had a handful of clinical setbacks that don’t necessarily bode well. There’s no shortage of AI naysayers, and the 0-for-3 start suggests that AI hype has set unrealistic expectations. Clinical wins are rarities in biotech, where an estimated 5% or 10% of drugs that head into human testing actually get approved.

“If you take the hype and PR at face value over the last 10 years, you would think it goes from 5% to 90%,” Patrick Malone, a principal at KdT Ventures, said of AI. “But if you know how these models work, it goes from 5% to maybe 6% or 7%.” These three companies have been at this for roughly a decade, combining to rack up an accumulated deficit of over $1.5 billion.Ivan GriffinThe reality check of the clinic, paired with a dour biotech market, has beaten up these first-generation biotechs that went public in 2021 or 2022. Their stock prices are all down at least 75%, underperforming the biotech market, even as